2024: Predicting Another Record Year for Global Renewable Energy Capacity Additions
“When one tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the world.” – John Muir
Continuing the momentum from 2023, the world’s renewable energy sector is expected to reach new heights in 2024. Primarily led by solar Photovoltaics (PV), we anticipate a new record in global renewable energy capacity additions.
The Dominance of Solar PV
Solar PV growth is projected to reach nearly 310 GW in 2024, a remarkable increase of over 7% from 2023. This growth is driven by lower module prices, increased uptake of distributed PV systems, and policy support for large-scale deployment in all major markets, including China, the European Union, the United States, and India.
However, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows for every solar market. Brazil, for instance, is expected to see a decline in additions from 2023 to 2024 due to policy changes on net metering rules that reduce remuneration rates for surplus generation.
Onshore Wind: A Slight Dip
Onshore wind, which saw a dramatic rebound in 2023, is expected to experience a slight decline of around 4% in capacity additions from 2023 to 2024. Despite this, China’s wind energy expansion is forecast to continue with the commissioning of large-scale onshore projects in mega-bases in the northeast, as well as provincial incentives supporting offshore plants.
| Country/Region | Anticipated Wind Capacity Change 2023-2024 |
|---|---|
| China | Increase |
| Europe | Decline |
| United States | Decline |
| India | Decline |
| Brazil | Significant Decline |
However, Europe, the United States, and India are likely to witness a slowdown in wind expansion due to various factors, including undersubscription in multiple auctions, permitting delays, turbine placement restrictions, and supply chain challenges.
The Accelerated Case: An Optimistic View
Looking ahead with an optimistic lens, renewable power capacity additions in 2024 could surpass expectations. In the accelerated case, we could see a 17% increase over the main case forecast, reaching over 540 GW. Achieving this will necessitate faster deployment of distributed PV systems and expedited commissioning of large-scale solar and wind projects in key regions such as China, Europe, India, and the United States.
In conclusion, the future of renewable energy looks promising as we move towards 2024. Despite potential hurdles, the continuous innovation, policy support, and economic attractiveness of renewables are driving the sector to new records. As we strive for a sustainable energy future, every year brings us closer to achieving our goals. The anticipated record-breaking capacity additions in 2024 is just one of many milestones on this journey.