By Dr. Sanjay Vashishtha
CEO – Firstgreen Consulting Pvt. Ltd.

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The 2020s are the decisive decade for global climate action. As the clock ticks toward the goals of the Paris Agreement, the world stands at a fork in the road: will the energy transition be gradual and insufficient, or rapid and transformative?

An infographic by Carbon Tracker, drawing from insights by Rocky Mountain Institute and the World Economic Forum, illustrates two contrasting narratives that define the trajectory of our energy future: a Gradual Transition and a Rapid Transition. These are not just semantic differences—they represent fundamentally different worlds in terms of climate outcomes, technological progress, and socio-economic impacts.

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1. Solar Electricity: Stalled or Soaring?

Under a gradual narrative, solar electricity prices plateau at $50–70/MWh by 2030. This scenario assumes that deployment slows down, cost reductions taper off, and fossil incumbents maintain dominance.

In contrast, the rapid narrative sees solar electricity prices falling further to $20–30/MWh, driven by exponential adoption, economies of scale, and continuous innovation. This pathway aligns with observed trends where utility-scale solar has already reached or undercut coal and gas in cost across many geographies.

Implication: A rapid transition unlocks cheap, clean electricity at scale—critical for electrifying transport, heating, and industry.

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2. Electric Vehicles: Niche or Norm?

In the gradual path, electric vehicles (EVs) would achieve a modest 5–10% market share by 2030. The shift is slow, blocked by regulatory inertia, lack of infrastructure, and fossil-fuelled lobbying.

The rapid path foresees EVs commanding over 30% of global vehicle sales. Such momentum is already visible: EVs made up 18% of global car sales in 2023 and are scaling fast, especially in China, the EU, and California.

Implication: Rapid adoption of EVs accelerates oil demand decline, decarbonises transport, and enhances air quality.

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3. Solar Capacity Growth: Flatline or Boom?

If the world treads the gradual route, solar installations will hover around 100 GW per year—roughly the current pace. That’s not enough to meet climate targets.

The rapid transition envisions solar capacity additions exceeding 200 GW annually, doubling the deployment rate by 2030. With rising grid flexibility, storage, and policy support, this is not a dream—it’s a necessity.

Implication: High solar uptake ensures reliable, resilient grids and drives down emissions in the power sector.

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4. Carbon Pricing: Token or Transformational?

As of 2018, only 20% of global carbon emissions were priced, and just 5% at levels consistent with the Paris Agreement. Global carbon taxes averaged less than $2/tonne—far too low to drive behavioural or investment change.

A rapid transition would see over 50% of emissions priced at an effective rate of $20/tonne or more, sending strong signals to polluters and investors alike.

Implication: Proper carbon pricing internalises climate costs and drives decarbonisation across sectors.

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5. The Defining Feature: Peak Demand in the 2020s

The most telling signs of a rapid transition are three peaks that must occur before 2030:

• ✅ Peak demand for new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars
• ✅ Peak demand for fossil fuels in electricity
• ✅ Peak demand for total fossil fuel use

Without these peaks, emissions continue to rise or stagnate—pushing us off the 1.5°C path. A gradual path delays these inflection points and drifts dangerously close to climate tipping points.

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Conclusion: Disruption is a Feature, Not a Bug

The rapid energy transition will not be smooth—it will challenge incumbents, rewrite business models, and create geopolitical shifts. But it is the only route that offers a fighting chance to meet our climate commitments.

The gradual path offers comfort to the status quo, but at the cost of climate stability and long-term economic resilience. Policymakers, businesses, and investors must therefore ask themselves a simple question:

“Do we want to prepare for disruption—or be disrupted by delay?”

The fork in the road is here. Which path will we choose?

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Sources:
Carbon Tracker, RMI, World Economic Forum (2019)
Infographic: “The Speed of the Energy Transition: Gradual or Rapid?”