The Great Emissions Shuffle: How the Global North Outsourced Its Pollution to the Global South
What we are witnessing is not decarbonisation. It’s offshoring in disguise.”
For three decades, developed nations have showcased domestic emission cuts as success stories in climate leadership. But dig deeper into the data, and a different narrative emerges — one not of reduction, but of redirection. The European Union (EU) and other OECD nations haven’t stopped emitting carbon — they’ve simply moved it.
According to the Centre for Science and Environment’s 2024 report on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), EU countries imported an average of 19% of their emissions annually between 1990 and 2021. In other words, nearly one-fifth of the EU’s carbon footprint was embedded in goods produced elsewhere — primarily in developing economies like India and China — and consumed within European borders.
Emissions Embodied in Trade: The Data No One Talks About
Graph 1 of the CSE report (based on Global Carbon Project data) reveals a stunning pattern:
| Region | Net Emissions Transfer (% of Production Emissions) |
|---|---|
| India | +6% (Net Exporter of Emissions) |
| China | +12% (Net Exporter) |
| Non-OECD | +9% |
| EU-27 | –19% (Net Importer of Emissions) |
| USA | –5% |
| OECD Avg. | –11% |
The EU’s peak outsourcing occurred in 2008, when 26% of its total carbon footprint was effectively “imported” from abroad. While countries like India produced high-emission goods, Europe reaped the benefits without paying the climate price.
A Tale of Two Emission Metrics
Most global climate rankings rely on territorial emissions — the carbon produced within national borders. But that’s no longer the whole story. What matters now is consumption emissions — which includes the emissions from all imported goods and services.
This is crucial: the EU’s per capita emissions in 2019 were 6.5 tCO₂ — triple that of India, and 43 times higher than Ethiopia (CSE, 2024). The global North, in its effort to “green” its economy, has simply transferred the dirty work to the South.
The Illusion of Decarbonisation
In energy policy circles, this pattern has a name: carbon leakage. It’s the phenomenon where companies relocate to regions with laxer environmental rules, only to continue polluting at the same — or higher — levels.
CBAM is being positioned by the EU as the antidote to leakage. But in reality, it is a retroactive correction for decades of global environmental outsourcing. It does little to erase the structural inequalities that created this system in the first place.
Why This Matters Now
As CBAM begins taxing imports based on embedded carbon, the spotlight turns to exporting nations. India, a net emitter on Europe’s behalf, will soon be charged for those same emissions — a climate debt it never incurred in the first place.
The bigger picture? CBAM may not spark a decarbonisation revolution in the Global South. But it has already exposed the fault lines in global climate justice.