Does the crude oil and polysilicon price trend has a correlation?
The global price trend of crude oil and polysilicon appears to have a correlation. Though historical pricing of two randomly selected commodities would show some sort of correlation in their trend charts. In case of crude oil and polysilicon it appears that there is a dependency on each other if the crude oil price increases, there is a global shift/attractiveness towards renewables and we observe that during pandemic when the global crude oil prices were at its bottom trending about US$20 per barrel, the polysilicon was also trading at its lowest level (US$7 per kilogram).
The current price of polysilicon is trading over US$37 per kilogram and expected to maintain the level until there is an oversupply of polysilicon. The global polysilicon manufacturing capacity is about 295 GW which is expected to reach about 536 GW by end 2023. The prices will remain high due to limited number of polysilicon players in the market. It is also expected that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war will keep the crude oil prices high and at least for a year, we have to manage with higher module prices.