Falling solar module prices are changing how developers evaluate solar project design.
As panels become more affordable, installing additional DC capacity behind the same AC connection becomes increasingly attractive. However, comparing this approach with solar trackers requires more than looking at annual energy generation. The timing of electricity generation—and the price it captures—can also influence project economics.
More Solar Panels or Solar Trackers?
Solar developers typically evaluate fixed-tilt DC oversizing against tracking systems by comparing the additional annual energy yield each option can deliver.
With lower module prices, adding more panels can improve generation capacity without necessarily increasing the AC connection capacity. This makes DC oversizing an important option when optimising project costs and output.
Solar trackers offer a different advantage. By following the sun, they can shift more generation towards certain morning and late-afternoon hours.
The better choice depends not only on how much electricity a project generates, but also on when that electricity is available.
Why the Timing of Solar Generation Matters
Electricity does not always have the same market value throughout the day.
Where market prices are higher during morning and late-afternoon periods, the additional electricity generated by trackers during those hours may earn more than additional generation during midday.
However, this benefit depends on the actual overlap between the project’s generation profile and market prices. Higher generation at a particular time does not automatically guarantee higher revenue.
This makes capture price an important consideration when comparing solar project configurations.
Changing Market Conditions Require a Fresh Assessment
The choice between fixed-tilt systems with DC oversizing and tracking systems becomes particularly relevant as projects consider market-linked bids or approach the end of fixed-price power purchase agreements (PPAs).
Under these conditions, the commercial value of electricity may depend more directly on when it is generated and sold.
Developers therefore need to consider both the technical performance and the market exposure of each configuration rather than relying solely on annual generation estimates.
What Does Firstgreen’s Research Examine?
Firstgreen’s latest report, “More Panels or Trackers? The Time Value of Solar,” compares fixed-tilt DC oversizing with solar tracking using simulated generation profiles and Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) day-ahead market prices.
The analysis examines several factors relevant to project economics:
- Capture prices: The market value of electricity generated at different times.
- Lifecycle costs: The costs associated with each configuration over the project’s life.
- Land requirements: How alternative designs affect land use.
- Future market sensitivity: How changing electricity market conditions may influence the relative attractiveness of each option.
Together, these factors provide a broader framework for assessing solar project design decisions in an evolving electricity market.
The Time Value of Solar
Lower module prices strengthen the case for installing more panels. However, the potential value of generation at different times may strengthen the case for solar trackers.
The decision ultimately depends on project-specific costs, generation profiles, land constraints and electricity market conditions.
The question is no longer just how much electricity a solar project can generate, but also when that electricity is generated and what it is worth.
Explore the Firstgreen Research Report
Read Firstgreen’s latest report:
“More Panels or Trackers? The Time Value of Solar.”
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