Why forecasting and scheduling is important to the RE generators ?

Renewable energy (RE) has become an increasingly important part of India’s energy mix, with a target to achieve 450 GW of installed RE capacity by 2030. While this is a laudable goal, it also presents unique challenges to the power grid. One of the key challenges is the intermittent nature of RE generation due to weather conditions. This makes forecasting and scheduling of RE generation an essential component of grid management. In this blog, we will discuss why forecasting and scheduling is important for RE generators, and how it can be implemented.

Solution Option Forecasting and scheduling of RE generation involves predicting the expected output of RE generators and scheduling it into the grid accordingly. This requires advanced planning and forecasting tools, as well as communication between the generators and grid operators. Implementing this system can help address several technical, business, and managerial issues, as outlined below.

Technical Issues Addressed The primary technical issues addressed by forecasting and scheduling are:

1. RE curtailment: When RE generators produce more energy than the grid can handle, the excess power must be curtailed to maintain grid stability. Accurate forecasting and scheduling can help prevent curtailment, ensuring that all available RE energy is utilized.
2. System congestion: When the grid is congested, it can be difficult to add new sources of RE generation. Accurate forecasting can help identify potential congestion issues and allow for proactive solutions to be implemented.
3. Grid outages: Large errors in RE forecasting can lead to real-time mismatch between power supply and demand and force discoms to induce grid outages.

Business Issues Addressed Forecasting and scheduling can also address several key business issues, including:

1. High APPC: As RE generators are deemed with a ‘must-run’ status, inaccurate forecasting of RE generation can disturb the merit order dispatch of power plants for the discom which can increase the overall cost of power procured.
2. Near and long-term planning: Accurate forecasting can help generators and discoms plan for the future and ensure that there is sufficient capacity to meet demand.
3. RE purchase obligation: RE purchase obligation is a mandate for discoms to purchase a certain percentage of their power from renewable sources. Accurate forecasting can help discoms meet this obligation more efficiently.

Managerial Issues Addressed Finally, forecasting and scheduling can also address several managerial issues, including:

1. Demand-side flexibility: Accurate forecasting can help discoms manage peak demand and encourage demand-side flexibility.
2. Revenue realization: Dynamic tariff encourages movement towards cost-reflective tariff, thereby improving revenue.
3. Customer engagement and choice: Forecasting and scheduling can enable customers to participate in demand-side management, providing them with more control over their energy usage.

How to make it work? To implement forecasting and scheduling effectively, the following steps can be taken:

1. Discoms should develop an approach to increase the visibility of distributed PV and create a methodology for including behind-the-meter RTS into discoms and LDCs operation plans.
2. SERCs and discoms should introduce Artificial Intelligence based advanced weather forecasting tools to improve the accuracy of day-ahead and real-time renewable energy production.
3. There should be better coordination and communication between generators and grid operators, facilitated by appropriate regulatory frameworks.

In conclusion, forecasting and scheduling of RE generation is critical to ensuring that India’s energy transition is successful. Implementing this system can address several technical, business, and managerial issues and provide benefits to both generators and discoms. By working together, India can achieve its ambitious RE targets and build a more sustainable energy future.