The Paris Agreement and the 1.5°C Target: A Deep Dive into Renewables Progress

Source: https://climateactiontracker.org

The Paris Agreement, signed in 2016, is a landmark international treaty aimed at addressing the global challenge of climate change. Central to this agreement is the goal to limit global warming to well below 2°C, with an ambition to restrict it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This target is not just a number; it represents a collective effort to prevent the worst impacts of climate change, from rising sea levels to extreme weather events.

The Role of Renewables in Meeting the 1.5°C Target

To achieve the 1.5°C target, a significant shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is imperative. By 2030, over 80% of the world’s electricity should be generated from renewables. However, the transition pace varies across countries, influenced by their existing power mixes and economic contexts.

Coal Power: A Global Overview

Coal, a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, remains a dominant energy source in many countries. Here’s a snapshot of the coal scenario in various nations:

• South Africa & Morocco: Both countries are reducing coal power but lack a definitive phase-out plan.
• India & Indonesia: These nations continue to add coal capacity, moving in the opposite direction of the 1.5°C target.
• China: While there’s a downward trend, the rate isn’t fast enough. The pipeline for new coal capacity is concerning.
• Australia: While some states have coal phase-out plans, there’s no national strategy.
• Germany: The EU ETS might drive coal out by 2030, but the official 2038 phase-out date is inconsistent with the 1.5°C goal.
• Japan & USA: Both lack a coal phase-out plan, with Japan’s reliance on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) seen as a distraction.
• European Union: Most member states are on track for a 1.5°C compatible coal exit, but a few are lagging.
• UK: On track to phase out coal by 2024.
• UAE: After building a coal plant, it was converted to fossil gas, leaving the door open for more such plants.
• Chile: Has aspirational phase-out plans that align with the 1.5°C target.
• Mexico & Brazil: Both lack a coal phase-out plan, with Brazil’s previous actions delaying the coal exit.

Renewables: The Current State

As of 2022, renewables account for 30% of total electricity generation. The growth, primarily driven by solar and wind, has been modest. The installation rates are increasing, with 2023 set to witness a 30% growth from the previous year. However, to meet the 1.5°C target, the world needs to triple its current installation rate by 2030.

Countries like Germany and Chile are leading the way. Germany’s recent legislative changes could significantly boost its renewable energy deployment. Chile, although without a 1.5°C compatible target, shows promising deployment rates. Conversely, countries like Japan and Mexico are lagging, with weak targets and reduced support for new renewable technologies.

Conclusion

The 2020s are pivotal for global renewables expansion. While there’s an evident acceleration in renewable energy deployment, the ambition gap for 2030 remains significant. Every country must intensify its efforts to transition from fossil fuels to renewables, ensuring a sustainable future and the realization of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target.